Posted by
Joe on Wednesday, July 19, 2006 10:34:50 PM
There is a great deal
of information out there about the widening warfare in the Middle
East. So much, really, that I thought it would be helpful for myself
and my readers if I culled through some of it and tried to create a
summary accompanied by relevant links. This post will mainly
concentrate on the factors that ignited this raging conflict.
One
of the lessons I remember from a collegiate history course is that
events have both underlying and precipitating causes. Such is the case
with the crisis in the Middle East. The underlying causes are
complicated but can be summed up as follows. The Middle East is
undergoing a struggle between three groups: 1) those more moderate
regimes in the region; 2) those regimes led by Islamic fundamentalists
bent on restoring the Islamic Caliphate and launching a global Islamic
revolution against Western Civilization; and 3) other murderous
ideologues bent on establishing and exercising hegemony over the region.
The
fundamentalist regimes and the ideologues share two things in common.
Hatred for Israel and hatred for the United States. Despite their
different worldviews, this mutual hatred binds them together. Both the
fundamentalist regimes and the tyrannical regimes are anti-Semitic and
anti-democratic - which explains their hatred for Israel and the U.S.
Only by driving Israel and the United States out of the region can free
both regimes to pursue their ideologies of hatred, totalitarianism and
destruction.
The
precipitating cause for the outbreak of violence is the June 25
abduction of an Israeli soldier in the Gaza Strip by Hamas and the July
12 abduction of two more Israeli soldiers by Lebanese Hezbollah
guerillas who infiltrated
the border between Israel and Lebanon, prompting Israeli Prime Minister
Ehud Olmert to declare that Israel was in a state of war with Lebanon.
The leader of Hezbollah, Hasan Naserallah, declared that he intended to
use the Israeli captives as bargaining chips for the release of three
Lebanese prisoners held in Israeli jails. Israel declared a refusal to
negotiate, and rightly so.
On
July 12, Israel began bombing Lebanon's airport and main roads.
Israeli attacks intensified into the morning and resulted in civilian
deaths. Later that day, Hezbollah began launching rockets at civilian
targets in Israel. The violence has since grown as Hezbollah has been
consistently lobbing missiles into Israel and Israel has in turn been
launching bombing attacks and troop incursions into southern Lebanon.
It
is important to understand that the Hezbollah terrorist organization controls some posts within the Lebanese government, but not the major levers of power. The official position of the
Lebanese government was a denial of any foreknowledge of the Hezbollah
incursion into Israel. Of consequence, however, is that Hezbollah is
the terrorist tool of Iran and Syria and has been used to foment
violence against Israel and instability within post-Saddam Iraq.
Charles Krauthammer wrote an informative piece on the motivations and behavior of Israel's enemies, whose very actions confirm their desire to wipe Israel off the map.
Hugh Hewitt has an excellent post
on the beginning of this war and its possible endgame in Syria. Pay
particular attention to Hugh's drawing of a parallel between this
conflict and Abraham Lincoln's view regarding the possible outbreak of
Civil War. Interesting stuff.
The conflict took a significant turn when it was discovered
that a missile fired at an Israeli warship was launched by members of
the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Make no mistake, Iran is joined at the hip with Syria
in their efforts to bring the conflict in the region to a head. Note
in particular Ledeen's view that this conflict appears to have been
planned for a long time. The two regimes are so joined at the hip that
fanatical Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has declared that an Israeli attack on Syria would be viewed by Iran as an attack on the entire Islamic world.
In
the meantime, the United States appears to be taking the position
of hanging back and allowing Israeli forces enough time to try and rout
the Hezbollah organization. International pressure will grow for the
United States to pressure Israel to back down. In my view, the United
States needs to let Israel do whatever it must to cripple Hezbollah,
including measures that severely weaken the hands of Hezbollah's
partners -- Iran and Syria. The international players are pretty much lining up
as one would expect with the United States and Britain supporting
Israel's right to defend itself and the western European nations
demanding a cease-fire and throwing their sympathies toward Lebanon.
Keep
in mind that until recently, Syria had almost absolute control over
Lebanon. Some commentators believe that Syria may have motivations to
use this conflict to re-solidify its power in Lebanon, but there is
disagreement over whether or not control over Lebanon is part of
Syria's overall strategic objective. Both Syria and Iran certainly
want two things: 1) the United States to fail in Iraq and be forced
out of the region; and 2) the subsequent destruction of Israel.
Hezbollah has already officially declared all-out open war with Israel.
In
summary, the disease within the region now begins and ends with Iran and
Syria. Only time will tell if the beginning of a long and arduous cure
is underway.