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Iran Arrests Student Dissident

Regime Change Iran has an important story about the Iranian regime's arrest of student resistance leader Ahamad Batebi.  From the post:

At 5 pm on Saturday evening, as Batebi and his wife Somaya, exited their apartment building they were accosted by several agents, forcing Batebi and Somaya back inside for interrogation and inspection of their home.

Somaya Batebi said that the agents spent 3 hours inspecting their apartment and finally gathered and confiscated Batebi’s personal property, including his computer, cellular phone, CD’s, several files and family photo albums.

Remember, this is a regime that wants to dominate the broader middle east and with whom we are fighting a proxy war through Israel's battle with Hezbollah. 
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Israel Vs. The Thugs

There is a great deal of information out there about the widening warfare in the Middle East.  So much, really, that I thought it would be helpful for myself and my readers if I culled through some of it and tried to create a summary accompanied by relevant links.  This post will mainly concentrate on the factors that ignited this raging conflict.

One of the lessons I remember from a collegiate history course is that events have both underlying and precipitating causes.  Such is the case with the crisis in the Middle East.  The underlying causes are complicated but can be summed up as follows.  The Middle East is undergoing a struggle between three groups:  1) those more moderate regimes in the region; 2) those regimes led by Islamic fundamentalists bent on restoring the Islamic Caliphate and launching a global Islamic revolution against Western Civilization; and 3) other murderous ideologues bent on establishing and exercising hegemony over the region.

The fundamentalist regimes and the ideologues share two things in common.  Hatred for Israel and hatred for the United States.  Despite their different worldviews, this mutual hatred binds them together.  Both the fundamentalist regimes and the tyrannical regimes are anti-Semitic and anti-democratic - which explains their hatred for Israel and the U.S.  Only by driving Israel and the United States out of the region can free both regimes to pursue their ideologies of hatred, totalitarianism and destruction.

The precipitating cause for the outbreak of violence is the June 25 abduction of an Israeli soldier in the Gaza Strip by Hamas and the July 12 abduction of two more Israeli soldiers by Lebanese Hezbollah guerillas who infiltrated the border between Israel and Lebanon, prompting Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to declare that Israel was in a state of war with Lebanon.  The leader of Hezbollah, Hasan Naserallah, declared that he intended to use the Israeli captives as bargaining chips for the release of three Lebanese prisoners held in Israeli jails.  Israel declared a refusal to negotiate, and rightly so.

On July 12, Israel began bombing Lebanon's airport and main roads.  Israeli attacks intensified into the morning and resulted in civilian deaths.  Later that day, Hezbollah began launching rockets at civilian targets in Israel.  The violence has since grown as Hezbollah has been consistently lobbing missiles into Israel and Israel has in turn been launching bombing attacks and troop incursions into southern Lebanon.

It is important to understand that the Hezbollah terrorist organization controls some posts within the Lebanese government, but not the major levers of power.  The official position of the Lebanese government was a denial of any foreknowledge of the Hezbollah incursion into Israel.  Of consequence, however, is that Hezbollah is the terrorist tool of Iran and Syria and has been used to foment violence against Israel and instability within post-Saddam Iraq.  Charles Krauthammer wrote an informative piece on the motivations and behavior of Israel's enemies, whose very actions confirm their desire to wipe Israel off the map.

Hugh Hewitt has an excellent post on the beginning of this war and its possible endgame in Syria.  Pay particular attention to Hugh's drawing of a parallel between this conflict and Abraham Lincoln's view regarding the possible outbreak of Civil War.  Interesting stuff.  

The conflict took a significant turn when it was discovered that a missile fired at an Israeli warship was launched by members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.  Make no mistake, Iran is joined at the hip with Syria in their efforts to bring the conflict in the region to a head.  Note in particular Ledeen's view that this conflict appears to have been planned for a long time.  The two regimes are so joined at the hip that fanatical Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has declared that an Israeli attack on Syria would be viewed by Iran as an attack on the entire Islamic world. 

In the meantime, the United States appears to be taking the position of hanging back and allowing Israeli forces enough time to try and rout the Hezbollah organization.  International pressure will grow for the United States to pressure Israel to back down.  In my view, the United States needs to let Israel do whatever it must to cripple Hezbollah, including measures that severely weaken the hands of Hezbollah's partners -- Iran and Syria.  The international players are pretty much lining up as one would expect with the United States and Britain supporting Israel's right to defend itself and the western European nations demanding a cease-fire and throwing their sympathies toward Lebanon.

Keep in mind that until recently, Syria had almost absolute control over Lebanon.  Some commentators believe that Syria may have motivations to use this conflict to re-solidify its power in Lebanon, but there is disagreement over whether or not control over Lebanon is part of Syria's overall strategic objective.  Both Syria and Iran certainly want two things:  1) the United States to fail in Iraq and be forced out of the region; and 2) the subsequent destruction of Israel.  Hezbollah has already officially declared all-out open war with Israel.      

In summary, the disease within the region now begins and ends with Iran and Syria.  Only time will tell if the beginning of a long and arduous cure is underway.

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Japan's Angst and Iranian Intransigence

Japan is taking the provocations of the North Korean regime very seriously.  The Japanese government is reviewing their constitutional authority to launch a pre-emptive first strike against North Korean missile bases. 

"If we accept that there is no other option to prevent an attack ... there is the view that attacking the launch base of the guided missiles is within the constitutional right of self-defense. We need to deepen discussion," Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe said.

Japan's constitution currently bars the use of military force in settling international disputes and prohibits Japan from maintaining a military for warfare. Tokyo has interpreted that to mean it can have armed troops to protect itself, allowing the existence of its 240,000-strong Self-Defense Forces.

Iran is expressing its displeasure over the prospect of any policy decisions about its nuclear program coming from the G-8 summit in Russia.  The Iranian regime is strongly hinting that any decision reached for which Iran was not consulted in advance could threaten the continuation of discussions between Iran and the EU.  The parties are presently negotiating over an incentive package in exchange for Tehran discontinuing its nuclear program.

Members of the Chinese intelligentsia provide analysis of China's possible role in preventing nuclear proliferation in Iran.  These are not government officials, but their comments are nonetheless interesting.  Of particular note is the possibility that China may be diversifying its oil imports -- perhaps signalling a desire to prevent the nation from becoming overly reliant on Iranian oil in anticipation of growing diplomatic hostility between Beijing and Tehran.

Ji concurred. He noted that China was expanding its energy imports from Saudi Arabia and other Mideast states. 'We don't want to become too dependent on Iran in energy matters,' he remarked, adding that Iranian leaders' 'stubbornness' was irritating the international community. China could help bridge the difference between the two sides by playing a more active role, he said.

Remaining intransigent, Iran has declared an unwillingness to respond to a possible incentive package as soon as the G-8 has requested.

Iran has also been accused of censorship for its decision to "edit" out any mention of the regime in an EU resolution listing nations that obstruct freedom of expression on the internet.
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Ahmademejab Again Threatens Israel And The West

With all of the attention focused on North Korea, let's not forget about Iran -- currently hosting a regional conference to discuss the Iraqi security situation.  Iran's fanatical President Mahmoud Ahmademejad didn't pass up the opportunity to once again call for the destruction of Israel.

"The basic problem in the Islamic world is the existence of the Zionist regime, and the Islamic world and the region must mobilise to remove this problem," Ahmadinejad said at the opening of the two-day conference.

"Today there is a strong will... to remove the Zionist regime and implement a legal Palestinian regime all over Palestine. The continued survival of this regime (Israel) means nothing but suffering for the region," he said.

Ahmademejad also issued a semi-veiled threat toward the West.

"Nations in the region will be more furious every day, and it will not be long before this intense fury will lead to a huge explosion," he said.

"The waves of fury of Muslim nations will not be confined within the boundaries of the region, and the people who close their ears to the cries of the Palestinians and blindly support this regime will be responsible for the consequences," Ahmadinejad warned.

It seems like the Iranian policy toward Iraq was borrowed directly from the Democratic Party.

On the main topic of Iraq, Iran said it would ask delegates to agree on a call for a timetable for the withdrawal of foreign troops.

"The continued presence of foreign troops in Iraq and their inability to control the situation and their delaying of handing over the affairs to the Iraqis has caused damage such as the desecration of the holy sites, the abduction of Iraqi officials and foreign diplomats, as well as the martyrdom of Iranian pilgrims," Mottaki also told delegates.

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China, North Korea And An Apparent U.S. Concession

In what appears to be a diplomatic concession to Pyongyang, the United States may be willing to consider engaging North Korea in bilateral negotiations on the condition that such negotiations are held in conjunction with the six-party talks.

"As many of you know, the Chinese have talked about putting together a six-party informal, and we both support that and we think that all countries are prepared to come to that informal meeting," Hill told reporters after meeting with Chun Young-woo, South Korea's top nuclear negotiator.

Asked about the possibility of a bilateral meeting with the North, he said: "Within the informal six-party talks, yes, I can."

"I just can't do it when they are boycotting the six-party talks."

The desire to coax Pyonyang back to the bargaining table appears at this point to be  unrelated to the desire to see the United Nations Security Council  pass a resolution imposing stiff sanctions on the regime of  Kim Yong Il.   By stepping forward to try and put the six-party talks  back together,  China may be sending a clear signal that it would exercise its veto power over  the imposition of any meaningful sanctions.  While unclear at the moment, evidence exists that perhaps Beijing is putting limited sanctions into place on its own volition. 

China, a traditional ally of North Korea, has been reluctant to impose sanctions on Pyonyang.  But Japan's Yomiuri newspaper reported Saturday that Beijing appeared to have clamped down on the flow of industrial materials to North Korea in a sign of disenchantment with the missile tests.

In a report from the Chinese city of Dandong on the North Korean border, the newspaper said the normally steady cross-border stream of supply trucks from China had all but stopped as of Friday. The paper quoted a trader on the Chinese side as saying traffic had plummeted after the missile tests.

South Korea's Yonhap news agency, however, cited business people in China as saying that any slowdown in trade in the past couple of days was likely due to seasonal factors, not political ones. 

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The North Korean Missile Showdown

The childish petulance of Kim Jong Il -- and certainly not any particular noteworthy achievement -- has at least temporarily thrust him to the center of the world stage. 

Despite his very public and profoundly embarrassing failure, it is unnerving to say the least that Kim Jong Il would actually go through with his threats to test fire missiles capable of carrying nuclear payloads. 

A Tokyo-based newspaper reports in its Friday AM edition that North Korea’s failed Taepodong-2 missile was aimed at an area of the ocean close to Hawaii.

It remains unclear whether or not Hawaii was the target or if the missile's vicinity to the island resulted from the failure of the weapon to reach a more distant target.

According to Reuters, “North Korea may have targeted Hawaii to show the United States that it was capable of landing a missile there, or because it is home to the headquarters of the U.S. Pacific fleet. “An alternative explanation might be that a missile could accidentally hit land if fired towards Alaska….”

It doesn't look like North Korea is finished throwing it's tantrum.

North Korea is reported to have positioned several missiles for additional launches. Their payload and potential destination remain unknown.

Understandably upset that several of the North Korean missiles launched ended up crashing into the Sea of Japan --  a little close to home -- the Japanese government initiated some minor diplomatic actions against North Korea.

Following North Korea’s test-firing on Wednesday of seven missiles into the Sea of Japan, the Japanese government barred a North Korean ferry from Japanese ports and imposed a number of other measures that stop short of full-scale economic sanctions against the country.

Japan's very justifiable reaction has thrown the North Korean government into a rage, prompting the regime to pose direct threats against the Japanese mainland.

Song Il Ho, the North Korean envoy in charge of talks on restoring relations with Japan, said the Japanese sanctions were “outrageous” and his country would retaliate unless they are lifted.

“Japan is translating its criticism against us into action,” Song told a group of Japanese reporters in the North Korean capital today. “This may force us to take stronger physical actions."

Contrary to demands from Pyongyang for the resumption of bilateral talks with the United States, President Bush has reaffirmed his commitment to continuing the six-party talks.

But Bush rejected the idea of any bilateral talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong Il.

"I think the best way to solve this problem diplomatically is for there to be other nations around the table with us, so that when he looks out and he looks at the table, he looks at the world," Bush said in the Larry King interview.

Meanwhile, the United Nations Security Council was set to possibly consider a resolution as early as Saturday -- but now appears willing to delay the vote until Monday at the earliest.

The resolution urges North Korea to immediately stop developing, deploying and testing ballistic missiles and to return to talks on its nuclear programme.

If passed in its current form, all member states would be obliged to take steps to prevent the transfer of any materials or technology that could be used in North Korea's missile or nuclear weapons programme.

A new paragraph adds they would also be required to take steps to prevent the purchase of anything related to these programmes from Pyongyang and to stop any money transfers.

In typical fashion, both China and Russia are making noises that indicate that they may balk at supporting the resolution unless it is watered down to mean, you know, nothing.

The draft is backed by the US and the UK, but opposed by two other permanent council members, China and Russia, both of whom want a non-binding statement without the threat of sanctions.

"If this resolution is put to a vote, definitely there would be no unity in the Security Council," Beijing's UN ambassador Wang Guangya said.

When asked if China might use its veto, he responded "all possibilities are open".

China and Russia shoulder much of the blame for aiding dictatorial regimes like North Korea and preventing the international community from imposing any meaningful pressure to forcibly modify the behavior of tyrants.

Unwilling to simply sit back and wait for the United Nations to do anything consequential, South Korea is joining Japan in taking bilateral actions against North Korea.

Just as an aside, the San Francisco Chronicle and the British Daily Mail spew the leftwing talking points regarding the growing crisis on the Korean peninsula.  Surprise -- it's the fault of the United States and Great Britain for attacking Iraq, encouraging WMD proliferation and showing bad faith by not negotiating directly with Pyongyang.   The Chronicle article even ventures into the -- if we can have the weapons why can't North Korea -- world of moral equivalence.   Portraying a dangerous and half-sane dictator like Kim Jong Il as a victim is a feat worthy of note in and of itself.

 
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Parade's Top Ten

Each year, Parade Magazine publishes a list of the world's ten worst dictators -- kind of a brief, albeit incomplete who's who of the international thugocracy.  This list is as good a place to start as any.  
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The Freedom Deficit

The purpose behind Dictator Watch is to explore the "freedom deficit" by tracking and providing analysis of those regimes that constitute a global "axis of evil."  Nation-states or global institutions that aid and abet the world's worst regimes will also fall under withering scrutiny. 

Dictator Watch believes that the greatest challenge to the security and prosperity of the world comes from rogue regimes and the lack of international will to confront despicable dictators and tinpot tyrants. 

We live in an era of advanced weaponry that permits a nation or terrorist organization to inflict damage on a scale far disproportionate to the aggressor's relative international stature.  The only long-term solution to this threat is to eliminate the freedom deficit through the spread of western political and economic values, not the least of these being liberty, free-enterprise and self-governance.  Such will be the prism through which Dictator Watch views the world.          
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